Innovations in Research: Epidemiological Methods and Modelling

Recently, we have made significant contributions to guidance for epidemiological reviews, participating in the WHO working group that updated the TB Prevalence Handbook, introducing innovative approaches for TB prevalence surveys, including using stool samples for children, and piloting methods for drug resistance surveys. Other successes include substantial progress in advancing the END TB model, and COVID-19 impact modelling in Ethiopia and Nigeria. We have also validated subnational TB burden estimation tools in countries such as Indonesia, Nigeria, and Tanzania.

Our ongoing and future work focuses on prevalence and drug resistance surveys in collaboration with the WHO to produce accurate burden estimates. We are refining the END TB model for burden estimation and aim to build in-country capacity for infectious disease modelling. We are also building capacity in other research areas within KNCV, such as qualitative research, and lead efforts to ensure that research across the KNCV network is of the highest quality – for example, through KNCV’s ethical review board.

Specific areas of focus

TB burden estimates

Understanding the burden of TB is one of the first steps toward designing and implementing context-specific interventions. Getting sub-national burden estimates is now increasingly needed because of the need for targeted interventions as the distribution of TB burden is heterogenous at sub-national levels. In support of this aim, we focus on availing improved and innovative tools to estimate both national and sub-national TB burden estimates.

Strengthening TB surveillance system

In alignment with the global direction of case-based, unified digital surveillance systems, KNCV is actively contributing to country-level efforts to design a new generation of surveillance systems that provide opportunities for real-time monitoring of TB epidemiology and program performance. Our role includes assessment of benchmarks and standards of national TB surveillance systems and epidemiological reviews.

TB Modelling

Building on ongoing works of supporting national TB programs with implementation of modelling in the development, updating, scenario optimization, and costing of national strategic plans, KNCV has embarked on further developing the modelling landscape toward availing simplified and user-friendly options.

Training and capacity building in research methods

Recognizing the pressing human resource crisis in health systems and the increased need for capacity building in the context of new tools and interventions, the team focuses on providing mentoring, supervision, and consultation services in research methods.

M&E and data management

Monitoring and evaluation is critical to the design and delivery of interventions to combat TB, both to assess performance at the facility, project, and national level. Central to effective monitoring and evaluation, is robust data management systems. The team provides M&E and data management services to projects and partners, as well as conducting capacity building training activities.